NEM 2018 for Chennai for a fortnight only?

The most awaited day had arrived with the good news of heavy rainfall for Chennai in the dates identified in our Margazhi /Solar Gabottam analysis. Earlier in our blog posted on 26th February, 2018 we had a given a detailed account of the 13-day observation and the expected rains from that. It showed heavy rainfall for Chennai only on the 12^th day corresponding to a fortnight between 19^th November and 2^nd December 2018. It must be noted here that the rainfall conditions in Chennai followed more or less the same periods indicated by this Garbottam so far.

The much expected cyclone Gaja gave only isolated rains for Chennai and this was in tune with the prediction of Solar Garbottam. It showed only isolated rainfall between 12^th to 19^th November for Chennai. This is now followed by another system in the Bay that is expected to give heavy rainfall to Chennai exactly in the period indicated by the 12^th day of Solar Garbottam.

The 12^th day of Solar Garbottam started from sunrise on 9^th January and lasted till sunrise on 10th January 2018. Throughout the day time of 9^th January, the sky was completely overcast with darkness all around but without rains. Such a condition happening on Garbottam observation day must give plentiful rainfall in the corresponding period. Based on that observation we wrote as follows in our 26^th Feb blog.

The cloud cover in the above picture was seen throughout 9^th and 10^th January 2018 (12^th and 13^th days of Solar Garbottam) covering 2 fortnights. However the Garbottam of 10^th January was marred by rainfall in many places in Chennai. This restricts the rainfall of the current NEM season to only a fortnight until 2^nd December for Chennai. The places where it didn’t rain on 10^th January are likely to get rainfall, which means rainfall scenario of NEM is not yet over by 2^nd December. It is likely to continue until 16^th December in other impact regions of NEM.

Following planetary features support rainfall in NEM regions

1. Mercury- Venus closeness:

This closeness starts from 28^th November to 30^th January. Though solar Garbottam for Chennai does not support rainfall in this period, there is going to be rainfall in other regions of Tamilnadu and east coast.

Dates of Mercury-Venus closeness

2. 2. Mercury in combustion

Mercury begins combustion in watery sign from 21^st November until 4^th December. Both the starting and end dates will see heavy rainfall. With Solar Garbottam favouring Chennai, heavy rainfall can be expected on 21^st November in Chennai. There will be rainfall / wet conditions throughout the combustion period.

3. Mercury- Jupiter closeness.

Starting from 17^th November Mercury is moving towards Jupiter stationed at Anusham. When these two planets are moving closer to each other, there will be heavy rainfall. This closeness lasts till 27^th November. Until then there is likely to be very good rainfall in Chennai and from NEM in general.

On 27^th -28^th November Mercury is crossing Jupiter from the opposite direction (retrogression). This brings Mercury to come much closer to Venus. The crossing over is likely to trigger a meteorological event in the Bay on 27^th / 28^th.

4. Mercury starting retrogression while Venus coming out of retrogression.

This is a good rainfall feature that happened on 17^th November within 24 hours’ gap. This causes the two to come towards each other reducing the gap between them. This lasts until 30^th December.  

 

Rainfall Spoiler

There is a biggest rainfall spoiler in this NEM season in the form of Venus in adverse transit. Venus appearing in the eastern sky before sunrise transiting the stars Swati, Vishaka and Jyeshta would spoil the rainfall. Unfortunately Venus begins transit on Swati on 4^th December 2018. Though other features are good and Venus itself continues to be in close conjunction with Mercury, this feature is likely to fizzle out NEM a little earlier.

The locational direction of Venus and its movement through specific stars are supposed to give or spoil rainfall. Last year the major quantum of rainfall from NEM (for Chennai too) came at a time Venus was moving in rainfall giving (Ativrishti yoga) transit in stars starting from Magha in the east that happened between 15^th September to 8^th November 2017. Having seen that Ativrishti yoga working well, the converse of it happening this NEM season can be expected to work as well. In other words, the adverse transit of Venus in Swati, Vishaka and Anusham in the eastern sky before dawn is likely to reduce rainfall. This transit begins on 4^th December and continues till the end of December.

 

Rainfall scenario for Chennai in a nutshell.

• Good rainfall prospects between 19^th November and 2^nd December
• With an exemplary Solar Garbottam in the background of this rainfall, major chunk of rainfall for Chennai can be expected in this fortnight.
• Reduction in rainfall from 2^nd December though there is likely to be heavy spell on 4^th December

Rainfall scenario for regions under NEM in a nutshell

• Spurt in rainfall activity from 17^th November onwards.
• Spurt in rainfall or meteorological events on 21^st, 27^th, 28^th November and  4^th December
• Isolated rainfall after 4^th
• Reduction in overall NEM after 4^th

 

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