Rainfall scenario for SWM-NEM 2023

The overall rainfall scenario for Chennai, based on Solar / Margazhi Garbottam was posted earlier HERE.

In the current post, the overall rainfall prospects for India as a whole on the basis of Pancānga features and planetary yogas are given.

Pancānga based prediction (2023-24 Śobhakrit year)

1. Verse of the year

The year name is Śobhakrit, which means beautiful. The verse of this year by Idaikkaattu Chitthar specifically states that there will be rainfall without fail.

The meaning of the verse: In the year Śobhakrit, the antiquated ones and ancient places will flourish. People will be good natured and not angered (reference to peace). Auspicious events will happen. There will be rainfall without fail. Many good things will happen.

Inference: Overall good rainfall

• Nava Nayaka-s

King – Mercury (winds and  cyclones)

Minister – Venus (rainfall)

Meghadhipati – Jupiter (rainfall)

Inference: Overall good rainfall

•  Arudra Pravesha

The Sun enters Arudra on 22^nd June 2023, at 5.20 pm

Lagna – Scorpio (watery sign)

Moon- Cancer (watery sign)

Time – Twilight (good for rainfall)

Weekday – Thursday (Jupiter’s day- good rainfall)

Inference: Plenty of rainfall indicated.

• Megha of the Year

There are 9 Megha-s which repeat in cycles. My 9-year research is due to this feature to observe how the Megha concept works. This Megha concept has been explained in Puranas wherein it is stated that Pushkala Megha would bring unprecedented rainfall at the time of deluge  (Pralaya).

The Megha of the current Year is Vāyu Megha which is supposed to bring scanty rainfall due to adverse wind currents. Anyway when I checked the past 9 cycles using the data of this website, I found that on four cycles (out of 9) Vāyu Megha brought out good rainfall (I had taken 300+ mm for June-July alone).

Inference: If other features indicate good rainfall, Vāyu Megha will have less effect.

Planet-based prediction

Rainfall supporting features

1. Mercury- Venus closeness

There will be plenty of rainfall when Mercury and Venus are close to each other. Year after year this feature ranks foremost in giving widespread rainfall in the regions associated with SWM or NEM. The following table shows such periods for 2023-24.

Inference: There is no closeness during the onset of SWM which means there will be subdued rainfall initially but it will pick up from 1^st July onwards. Similarly, November and most of December will miss the closeness period of Mercury and Venus. Rainfall depends other planetary yogas.

• Saturn – Mars – Sun in alternate signs

This feature, whenever present brings copious rainfall to the extent of causing floods. This year this position appears three times:

• Between April 15 and May 10

In this period the following transits trigger rainfall. The dates of astrological features are likely to see good rainfall even though there will be scope for rainfall throughout the period in general.

• Jupiter crosses over to Aries in 21-22 of April
• Mercury begins retrogression on 21^st April
• Sun crosses Rahu on 24^th April
• Venus comes to sextile position (60 degrees) to Rahu.

• Between July 1 and July 16
• Mercury crosses the Sun to get closer to Venus
• Sun in sextile to Jupiter
• Mars in Leo with Venus towing behind it

• Between October 18 and November 16
• Mercury crossing over to the next sign to join the Sun on 18^th October
• Mercury crosses the Sun on 20^th October
• Mercury crosses Mars on 29^th October by which for the first time in the year, Mars’ forward march is halted. Until then Mars has been in the lead of all planets which ensures hot conditions.
• Jupiter comes in exact opposition to Mars and Mercury on 28^th and 29^th October.
• Mutual opposition of Mars and Jupiter is a spoiler, but Mars in alternate sign with Saturn and Sun is likely to offset that effect. If it rains well on these days, it is an indication of the alternating position of Mars- Sun- Saturn being more powerful. Western parts of India and West part of peninsular India are likely to be the beneficiaries.

•  Venus in favourable stars

Venus appearing in eastern sky (before sun rise) transiting the stars Magha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra and in the western sky (after sunset) transiting the stars Swati, Vishakha and Anusha brings copious rains throughout the transit period.

This year Venus appears in the eastern sky in the favourable stars, Magha to Chitra between 2^nd October and 5^th December.

In the past, transit of Venus in favourable direction and favourable stars have ensured excellent rainfall. This year too, November can be expected to see good rainfall due to favourable Venus, even though Mercury- Venus closeness is absent in that month.

Note of caution: In the past when Mercury-Venus closeness was absent with other rainfall features being present, the odd places away from NEM regions have received rainfall. Such prospect is likely to happen this time during November.

• On 2^nd October, Mars, Venus and Mercury enter the next sign. Ketu is also at the junction of the signs. All these four planets are at equi-distant from each other at 30 degrees each. This is likely to be a trigger for copious rainfall on all four directional parts of the country.
• Mars-Sun- Saturn in alternating signs start occurring between 18^th October and 16^th November. Added with the transit of Venus in favourable stars, there is likely to be a hike in rainfall in this period. Western side of Peninsular India is likely to be the beneficiary.
• On 28^th November, Venus crosses Ketu ensuring good rainfall. South India is likely to be the beneficiary.
• Just a day earlier, on 27^th November Mercury crosses over to Sagittarius ensuring windy conditions bringing rainfall.

Rainfall Spoilers

• Right from the year beginning, Mars is on the lead of all the other planets. This will scorch the land. A long dry period occurred between August 2016 and July 2017 when Mars was in the lead of all the planets including Sun. But this year it is closely followed by Venus during SWM. Only on 29^th October, Mars is getting overtaken by another planet, namely Mercury.

• Once again Mars will be in Dahana Nadi in Sapta-Nadi Chakra from 23^rd September and 13^th October which usually causes dryness. Only Mercury-Venus closeness offers redemption in this period. To want an extent, it will mitigate the spoiler effect of Mars must be seen.

Onset of SWM

There is practically no planetary yoga to support or trigger SWM in towards end of May and beginning of June. Spoilers are (1) Mars in the lead of all the planets and (2)  Mercury-Venus closeness being absent.

The only ray of hope is Jupiter crossing Rahu on 26^th May. Since these two are slow moving, they cross each from 25^th May to 1^st June. Whenever a planet crosses Rahu or Ketu there will be rainfall. If that planet happens to be Jupiter, rainfall is assured. Therefore, the period between 25^th and May and 1^st June will find a gradual development of onset of SWM. Within this period,  on May 30^th and 31^st, Venus enters the next sign (watery sign of Cancer). That is likely to be the onset date of SWM.

Cyclone prospects

Going by the past observations, the beginning of retrogression of Saturn and other planets are found to coincide with cyclones. Such dates are noted down here:

1. June 17

Saturn begins its retrogression on 17^th June indicating a meteorological event. On that day. Venus and Mercury are exactly at 60-degree distance from each other which also acts as a trigger to the event.

Between 17^th and 21^st of June, Saturn stalls at the same location when the cyclone gathers momentum or moves slowly.

21^st June is marked with landfall or heavy rainfall because Saturn starts retrograde movement on that day. Mercury and Mars come into sextile angle on that very day.

The region is likely to be South east India or the regions signified by Aslesha, such as Andhra and regions around it and north of it.

• July 23

On this day Venus begins retrogression. Generally, this is marked by good rainfall, but on this day Saturn and Mars are coming in exact opposition; Sun crosses the midpoint between Rahu and Ketu and Venus is sextile with Ketu. Moon goes into watery Navamsa (Meena). With so many couplings, it must be seen if any meteorological event takes shape on this or around this date.

• September 4

Jupiter begins retrogression on 4^th September and continues to stay motionless until 7^th September. On 7^th September Mercury which is already retrograde moves exactly at 30 degrees away from Venus. This combination is likely to contribute to the formation of a meteorological event. Northern part of the Bay is likely to be the beneficiary.

• November 4

Saturn comes out of retrogression and moves forward from 4^th November onwards. Just before it reverses direction, on 29^th October Mercury crosses Mars in Libra. With Mars joining Sun in Libra which is an odd sign from Saturn, there is already rainfall supportive condition. Mercury crossing Mars which until then was leading all the planets, is likely to set in motion a meteorological event.

On 1^st November Saturn starts stalling which is likely to intensify the event. The event ends on 4^th November when Saturn starts forward motion. Venus has just then entered the next sign and Moon will be in watery sign and Rasi and Navamsa (Cancer) Heavy rainfall is expected on 4^th November.

Western section of India or western side of Peninsular India is the likely beneficiary.

Rainfall trigger periods based on retrogression of Mercury.

Mercury is found to give plenty of rainfall by thunderstorms or sudden air circulation whenever it goes into retrogression. The following are the retrogression periods of Mercury when plenty of rainfall can be expected.

1. From 21^st April to 16^th May ( East part of the Peninsular India and east India benefited)
2. From 23^rd August to 15^th September (East and south of Peninsular India)
3. From 13^th December to 2^nd January (Western India and western part of Peninsular India)

Overall inference:

• The average annual quantum of rainfall will be realised, but the regions look lopsided.
• Late picking up of SWM
• NEM not benefiting the regular regions of NEM
• North India does not appear in planetary transits. Mars moving in the front of all the planets until 29^th October is likely to contribute to dry conditions in North India.

*****

Update on 10th July, 2023

Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi experienced unprecedented rainfall and flooding since 9th July, 2023.

Landslides and flash floods were reported in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh.

River Yamuna was close to its danger level at the time of writing this. Heavy rains in the last 40 years were reported in Punjab, Delhi etc.

This period coincided with Mercury – Venus closeness and Sun-Mars-Saturn in alternating signs.

Particularly heavy rains started after Mars entered Leo and right from the time Venus started entering Leo and when Mercury entered Kataka. Ever since Mercury started closeness while being in Mithuna, the rainfall increased in West India (Mumbai, Punjab). Once it shifted to Kataka (north sign), Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand started experiencing heavy rains and floods.

A notable feature is the SWM region of West coast of peninsular India received less rainfall in this period while the non SWM regions were lashed. Can be attributed to Mars and Venus in Leo while two rainfall yogas were running.